ASML’s Q3 2024 Earnings: Navigating China Sanctions Amid Broader Market Weakness
ASML’s Q3 2024 Earnings: Navigating China Sanctions Amid Broader Market Weakness
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Tables
Table 1: Financial Metrics for ASML by Quarter
This table provides a quarterly breakdown of key financial metrics, including net bookings, net sales, and gross profit, along with quarter-over-quarter (Q/Q) and year-over-year (Y/Y) changes from Q2 2022 to Q3 2024.
Table 2: Sales of ASML Systems and Service by Quarter (EUR Million)
This table presents ASML’s sales figures for different equipment categories like EUV, ArFi, ArF Dry, KrF, I-Line, and metrology/inspection over recent quarters (Q1 2023 to Q3 2024).
Table 3: China Revenues by Equipment Manufacturer
This table outlines ASML’s revenue from China compared to other major equipment manufacturers, showing both absolute revenue figures and the percentage of total revenue over multiple quarters (from CY 2022 to Q3 2024).
Table 3B – ASML’s China Revenues 1999-2023
This table outlines ASML’s revenue from China, showing both absolute revenue figures and the percentage of total revenue by year from 2019-2023
Charts
Chart 1: ASML’s Q3 FY24 Income Statement
This chart showcases ASML's Q3 FY24 income statement, highlighting net sales, gross profit, operating profit, and segmental contributions like EUV and ArFi.
Chart 2: ASML’s Global Lithography Market Share
This chart illustrates ASML's dominance in the lithography sector, based on data from The Information Network report.
Chart 3: Global Semiconductor Equipment Revenue by Company (1H 2024 vs. 1H 2023)
This chart compares semiconductor equipment revenues globally for 1H 2024 and 1H 2023, highlighting the contrasting growth rates between Chinese and non-Chinese equipment manufacturers.
Chart 4: ASML’s Market Cap Change Relative to SAP
This chart illustrates the shift in market capitalization between ASML and SAP, highlighting SAP's ascent to become the highest-valued tech company in Europe following ASML’s Q3 2024 earnings results.
Chart 5: ASML’s Q3 FY24 Income Breakdown
This chart details ASML’s Q3 FY24 income, emphasizing the contributions of different equipment types and services, gross margins, and R&D and SG&A costs.
Reports Profiled:
Mainland China’s Semiconductor and Equipment Markets: Analysis and Manufacturing Trends
Global Semiconductor Equipment: Markets, Market Shares and Market Forecasts
ASML’s Q3 2024 earnings call on October 15 sent shockwaves through the semiconductor market, triggering a 5.3% drop in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index. While ASML posted strong quarterly sales of EUR 7.47 billion, attention quickly turned to underwhelming order intake and a downward revision in 2025 guidance, raising concerns about the persistence of weakness in the wafer fab equipment (WFE) sector. The company’s total order intake fell to EUR 2.63 billion, nearly half the expected EUR 5.4 billion, highlighting a sharp softening in demand.
Orders Halved and Lowered 2025 Guidance
ASML’s Q3 order volume of EUR 2.63 billion represents a 52.8% drop from Q2 and reflects significant weakness across key semiconductor segments as shown in Table 1 and illustrated in Chart 1. In Q3, net system sales was driven by logic at 64%, with the remaining 36% coming from memory. However, net system bookings in the quarter was more or less balanced between memory at 54% and logic at 46% of bookings.
The orders missed market expectations due to slower recoveries in non-AI segments like PCs and mobile, which have yet to rebound to pre-slump levels. Additionally, customers in both logic and memory sectors have delayed investments, further suppressing equipment demand.
According to Christophe Fouquet - President and Chief Executive Officer of ASML:
“In logic, the slow recovery of end markets such as mobile and PC, together with specific competitive foundry dynamics, as resulted in a slower ramp of new nodes at certain customer who are as a results pushing out some of their fabs and changing their litho demand timing.
In memory, the slower market recovery is also resulting in limited capacity addition with the focus still on technology transition, supporting the high bandwidth memory and DDR5 AI related demand.”
Chart 1
Slower Recovery in Key Markets: Data Insights
Despite stronger sales in Q3 2024, the uneven recovery persisted across semiconductor segments. Both logic and memory customers continued to delay investments as noted above, aligning with the slower-than-expected recovery in these end markets. ASML’s EUV revenues stood at EUR 2.07 billion for Q3 2024, representing a 9.7% increase over Q2 2024 but a 10.5% decline year-over-year, highlighting ongoing challenges in high-performance semiconductor production. Meanwhile, the ArFi (ArF Immersion) segment posted robust growth, reaching EUR 2.84 billion, underscoring sustained demand for DUV lithography systems as customers focused on advanced nodes and process upgrades.
According to The Information Network report Sub-100nm Lithography: Market Analysis and Strategic Issues, ASML dominates the lithography sector as shown in Chart 2. And these shares exclude EUV lithography revenues in which ASML has no competition.