Camtek Faces HBM Cycle Reset — But Is Poised for Leadership in Hybrid Bonding and AI Packaging

Introduction

Camtek Ltd. (NASDAQ: CAMT) recently experienced a sharp price target cut from $107 to $57, signaling renewed caution from analysts in response to Samsung’s inventory digestion across its High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) supply chain. While the revision has triggered short-term volatility in the stock, a broader examination reveals a much more layered narrative. Camtek is not merely reacting to the cyclicality of HBM demand — it is preparing to capitalize on a coming structural shift in advanced packaging, where hybrid bonding, extreme bandwidth scaling, and the rise of chiplet architectures converge to create multi-year opportunities in semiconductor inspection. HBM is not going away. It is entering a new phase — and Camtek is strategically positioned to lead as the industry pivots toward HBM4e and beyond, according to my report entitled Metrology, Inspection, and Process Control in VLSI Manufacturing.

Samsung Slowdown and the Nature of the Downgrade

Samsung’s temporary pause in HBM-related capital expenditure is real, and Camtek’s exposure to the Korean market has made the effect visible in its near-term bookings. Samsung made aggressive investments in advanced packaging lines for HBM3 and HBM3E, anticipating demand from Nvidia and other AI compute vendors.

However, slower-than-expected absorption of this capacity, combined with elevated inventory and the transitional gap between HBM3E and HBM4, led to a pullback in new tool orders. Camtek supplies inspection tools used in the RDL, microbump, and silicon interposer stages of 2.5D HBM packaging — all critical in the stacking and integration of high-bandwidth DRAM dies onto AI accelerators like Nvidia’s H100 and H200. When Samsung slows its expansion of these lines, inspection tool demand is among the first to pause.

The key is distinguishing between a temporary correction and a structural reversal. Camtek’s fundamentals have not weakened. Rather, it is navigating a reset in the HBM investment cycle. HBM demand is not declining — it is accelerating, but not linearly. The transition from HBM3E to HBM4 and HBM4e introduces technological complexities, extended customer qualification windows, and new inspection challenges that play directly into Camtek’s strength.

HBM Revenue Growth Outlook

To understand the longer-term opportunity, it is important to examine the projected growth in HBM revenues by supplier from 2022 through 2027. This revenue trajectory maps directly to the inspection demand cycles Camtek will encounter.