From Leaders to Moonshots: My Top Equity Picks by Forward Potential

Introduction

Every stock in this portfolio was selected for a reason. Some represent dominant positions in critical technologies — semiconductors, AI infrastructure, or GLP-1 therapeutics. Others are niche players, misunderstood by the market, but positioned to benefit from structural shifts in logistics, quantum computing, or national security. A few are early-stage, even speculative — but they sit at the edges of transformative change, where outsized returns often begin.

These aren’t random tickers. GCT is a logistics platform scaling quietly under the radar of Wall Street. GSIT is building a chip architecture that could outperform GPUs in inference tasks the market hasn’t priced yet. Porch has the pieces to digitize the chaotic home services market if it can execute. Even Can-Fite, buried under microcap pressure, has multiple trials underway in large disease categories. I’ve taken positions in these names not because they are already winners — but because they’re overlooked and mispriced by a market obsessed with mega-cap safety.

At the core of this portfolio are high-conviction themes: AI datacenters, advanced foundry technology, real-world GLP-1 demand, and energy infrastructure. Around them, I’ve layered optionality — stocks that could double or triple on even modest execution or clinical progress. This isn’t a diversified index. It’s a concentrated expression of conviction, built on asymmetric upside, market inefficiencies, and a belief that risk, when calibrated, is the price of outperformance.

Top Tier Holdings: Core Positions with Durable Momentum

Nvidia (NVDA)

Nvidia remains the crown jewel of AI infrastructure. With its dominance in training GPUs, growing influence in inference workloads, and tight integration through CUDA and NVLink, it powers the AI datacenters of the future. The company’s H100 and Blackwell ramp continue to drive multi-billion-dollar revenue quarters. The only meaningful risks are geopolitical (e.g., export restrictions) and hyperscaler chip in-sourcing—but neither has dented momentum meaningfully.

Pro: Nvidia owns >90% of the AI training chip market and has built a full-stack software and interconnect moat.
Con: Export controls and in-house ASIC development from hyperscalers may constrain long-term unit growth in China.
Empirical Data: FY2025 data center revenue run-rate exceeds $110B; gross margin hit 74.1% in Q1; trades at ~39x forward P/E and 19x EV/Sales. Shares are up ~160% YTD through July.
18-Month Projection: Target range $190–$210 (adjusted for splits), driven by Blackwell demand, inference expansion, and HBM4 memory uptake. Watch for Q4 Blackwell shipments and further inference design wins by early 2026.

Eli Lilly (LLY)

A global leader in pharmaceuticals, Eli Lilly has emerged as the dominant player in weight-loss drugs with Mounjaro and Zepbound. The GLP-1 market is forecast to exceed $100 billion annually by decade's end, and LLY has the brand recognition, pipeline, and scale to capitalize. Risks center on valuation and competition from Novo Nordisk, but so far, execution has been flawless.

Pro: Best-in-class GLP-1 pipeline with strong demand and multiple next-gen obesity therapies in development.
Con: Valuation is stretched (~60x earnings); high expectations could punish even minor pipeline setbacks.
Empirical Data: Zepbound sales hit $517M in Q1 2025; total revenue grew 26% YoY; trades at 63x forward earnings, PEG ratio >2.0.
18-Month Projection: Price target $950–$1,050, contingent on expanded obesity market penetration and next-gen GLP-1 FDA approvals by late 2026.

Meta Platforms (META)

After years of missteps, Meta is now firing on all cylinders. With growing ad revenue, a focused AI infrastructure strategy, and a revitalized leadership team (including its investment in Scale AI), Meta is positioning itself as the largest open-source AI infrastructure operator. Risks lie in regulatory exposure and ongoing metaverse spending, but Meta’s core platforms and LLM strategy offer major upside.

Pro: Open-source LLM strategy, massive AI CapEx, and Scale AI partnership give Meta a clear edge in cost-per-inference.
Con: Political and regulatory scrutiny in U.S. and EU could pressure ads and platform growth.
Empirical Data: Q1 2025 revenue rose 27% YoY; CapEx raised to $70B for the year; stock up 45% YTD and trades at 25x forward earnings.
18-Month Projection: Price target $580–$640, depending on AI ad monetization, open-weight LLM traction, and margin expansion. Key catalyst: integration of Meta’s AI into Instagram and WhatsApp search by mid-2026.

Vertiv Holdings (VRT)

Vertiv has become a stealth winner of the AI datacenter boom. Its power and thermal infrastructure systems are essential for high-density GPU clusters. With contracts expanding across hyperscalers and sovereign deployments, VRT is becoming a strategic supplier for the AI era. Risks are primarily execution- and supply chain-related, but demand visibility is unusually strong.

Pro: Thermal and power density solutions are seeing surging demand from hyperscalers and sovereign AI builds.
Con: Execution risk remains in scaling capacity and global delivery timing.
Empirical Data: Revenue grew 32% YoY in Q1 2025; backlog rose to $5.4B; trades at 32x earnings with 17% operating margin. Stock is up ~160% over the past 12 months.
18-Month Projection: Target range $115–$130, driven by global AI datacenter deployments and expanded backlog conversion. Watch for sovereign wins in Middle East and Southeast Asia.

Novo Nordisk (NVO)

The Danish pharma leader is riding the same GLP-1 wave as Eli Lilly. Its blockbuster Ozempic and Wegovy have transformed both its revenue mix and investor base. Novo also benefits from a more measured valuation and strong European regulatory alignment. Pipeline diversification and scale remain strong points. Currency exposure and capacity constraints are the main risks.

Pro: Ozempic and Wegovy sales are accelerating globally with supply constraints now easing.
Con: Competition from Lilly and looming biosimilars by 2027 could compress margins and market share.
Empirical Data: Sales rose 24% YoY in Q1 2025; trades at 32x forward earnings and 11x sales; FX headwinds impacted Q2 guidance. Stock is up ~41% over the last 12 months.
18-Month Projection: Target $78–$88, driven by manufacturing scale-up, global obesity treatment expansion, and oral semaglutide trial results in 2026.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSM)

TSMC is the backbone of global semiconductors. From Apple to Nvidia, nearly every advanced chip runs through TSMC’s fabs. Its high-margin 3nm and upcoming 2nm nodes cement its technical lead. Political risk from China looms large, but no foundry matches TSMC’s scale or yield. Strategic diversification to Japan and the U.S. offers a partial hedge.

Pro: Sole provider of 3nm production at high yield; dominates advanced packaging and chiplet integration.
Con: China–Taiwan geopolitical tension remains the greatest single risk to the global semiconductor supply chain.
Empirical Data: Revenue grew 35% YoY in Q2 2025; gross margin >53%; forward P/E ~22; ~55% market share of global foundry revenue. Stock up ~70% YTD.
18-Month Projection: Price target $190–$220, led by N3E ramp, 2nm tapeouts (Apple, Nvidia), and U.S./Japan fab capacity coming online.

Mid-Tier Opportunities: Scalable, But Waiting for a Catalyst

KLA Corporation (KLAC)

KLA is a leader in metrology and process control—essential for advanced chip production. It offers high margins, dominant market share, and strong recurring revenue. However, it's often misunderstood compared to bigger names like AMAT. As the industry pivots to High-NA EUV and smaller nodes, KLA's tools become more indispensable.

Pro: Controls over 50% of the process control market; vital in yield management for advanced nodes.
Con: Slower recovery in logic and memory capex cycles can delay tool purchases.
Empirical Data: FY2024 revenue $9.8B; gross margin 60%; trades at ~20x forward earnings; cash flow margin among highest in WFE peers. Stock up ~24% YTD.
18-Month Projection: Price target $740–$820, supported by High-NA EUV transition, advanced packaging demand, and normalized DRAM/3D NAND capex recovery.

Amazon (AMZN)

AWS growth has moderated, but Amazon’s AI chip efforts (Trainium, Inferentia), retail stabilization, and advertising surge position it well for a multi-pronged reacceleration. AMZN’s stock remains below its long-term highs, making it an attractive turnaround candidate—though margin pressure and regulatory scrutiny persist.

Pro: AWS still holds ~30% global market share, and ad business is growing faster than Google’s.
Con: Margins remain under pressure from logistics costs and heavy AI infrastructure investment.
Empirical Data: Revenue up 13% YoY in Q1 2025; AWS grew 18%; stock trades at ~36x forward earnings; up ~22% YTD.
18-Month Projection: Price target $220–$250, driven by AWS AI monetization, retail automation, and improved free cash flow conversion.

Rocket Lab (RKLB)

RKLB is the only credible public pure-play on next-generation space infrastructure. With vertically integrated launch and satellite services, plus growing U.S. defense demand, it could become a prime SpaceX alternative. Execution has been uneven, and delays persist, but the strategic positioning is compelling—especially if the Musk–Trump political split reshapes procurement priorities.

Pro: Strong pipeline of U.S. government contracts and vertically integrated space capabilities.
Con: Launch delays and high capex mean profitability is still likely 2+ years away.
Empirical Data: Q1 revenue $92M (+69% YoY); backlog $547M; trades at ~8x 2025 sales; cash runway into mid-2026. Stock up ~30% YTD.
18-Month Projection: Price target $8–$10, contingent on Electron launch cadence, Neutron milestones, and satellite contract wins.

Automatic Data Processing (ADP)

ADP offers a steady compounder play on employment and HR digitization. It benefits from strong recurring revenue and wide economic moats in payroll services. While it doesn’t ride high on buzz, its role in financial infrastructure and stable cash flow makes it a solid core holding.

Pro: 90%+ client retention and exposure to rising employment trends in enterprise and SMB.
Con: Slower economic growth could suppress payroll volumes and new customer adds.
Empirical Data: FY2024 revenue $18.3B; operating margin ~23%; trades at 27x forward earnings; ~11% 10-year CAGR. Stock up ~7% YTD.
18-Month Projection: Price target $275–$300, based on consistent EPS growth, dividend increases, and resilient demand for digital HR tools.

Costco Wholesale (COST)

Costco is a retail juggernaut with unmatched membership renewal rates and disciplined pricing. While expensive by traditional retail valuation metrics, its brand loyalty and pricing power offer long-term defensibility. It’s not a tech play—but in uncertain markets, its business model shines.

Pro: 92%+ renewal rate and strong high-income consumer base support predictable growth.
Con: P/E over 40 is well above historical averages, limiting near-term upside.
Empirical Data: Revenue $255B (TTM); membership fee income $4.6B; gross margin 11.7%; stock trades at 41x forward P/E. Up ~37% YTD.
18-Month Projection: Target range $950–$1,050, depending on private-label growth and membership expansions. Risks are macro, not company-specific.

Vistra Corp (VST)

Vistra is emerging as a stealth clean energy and battery storage leader. With acquisitions like Energy Harbor, Vistra now has nuclear, solar, gas, and grid-scale battery assets. Investors are starting to reward its diversified cash flow and AI data center tie-ins, though its legacy utility identity may continue to weigh on valuation multiples.

Pro: Largest integrated U.S. power company with real-time pricing exposure and growing clean energy portfolio.
Con: Still valued as a legacy utility despite clean energy and AI grid exposure.
Empirical Data: EBITDA margin ~27%; forward P/E ~11; up 67% YTD; ~$1.7B allocated to battery/clean energy projects.
18-Month Projection: Price target $85–$95 as clean energy re-rating and grid infrastructure narrative builds momentum.

Apple (AAPL)

Apple remains a cash-flow machine with unmatched brand loyalty. But its AI ambitions lag rivals, and hardware cycles are maturing. The biggest near-term catalyst would be success in AI silicon or services expansion. For now, it’s a quality hold, but no longer a growth engine.

Pro: $100B+ in annual free cash flow and 2B+ active devices provide a durable monetization base.
Con: Missed the AI inflection point; hardware refresh cycles slowing, especially in China.
Empirical Data: Gross margin 46%; Services grew 13% YoY; trades at ~30x forward earnings; stock up ~10% YTD.
18-Month Projection: Target $230–$250, based on services growth, Vision Pro v2, and modest AI features by late 2026. Risk: lack of compelling AI hardware narrative.

Speculative or Niche Bets: Mispriced, Ignored, or Just Getting Started

Gigacloud Technology (GCT)

GCT is a niche B2B logistics platform powering the back-end of bulky e-commerce. Its asset-light fulfillment model is drawing comparisons to a “Flexport for wholesale.” Revenue growth has surprised to the upside, but institutional recognition is still thin.

Pro: 30%+ YoY revenue growth and consistently expanding margins, with accelerating cross-border demand.
Con: Limited float, low analyst coverage, and high short-term volatility.
Empirical Data: Q1 revenue +39% YoY; gross margin 29%; trades at 7.2x trailing EPS and ~1.3x sales. Stock up ~180% in trailing 12 months.
18-Month Projection: Target $40–$50, assuming continued revenue growth, margin expansion, and analyst initiation. Key catalyst: broader U.S. institutional coverage and a strong Q4 holiday logistics cycle.

Can-Fite Biopharma (CANF)

A microcap biotech developing small molecule drugs for cancer, liver, and inflammatory diseases. With several Phase 2 trials underway, CANF has multiple shots on goal, but capital runway remains tight.

Pro: Pipeline with positive early signals in liver and inflammatory disease; multiple mid-stage trials advancing.
Con: Cash runway under 12 months; high risk of dilution if milestones are delayed.
Empirical Data: Market cap ~$20M; trades at ~1.1x cash; stock down 85% from 2021 peak but up 30% from April 2025 lows.
18-Month Projection: Upside target $6–$10 (reverse split adjusted), contingent on trial readouts or licensing deal. Risk: any trial failure likely triggers capital raise and collapse.

CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP)

CRSP is a pioneer in gene editing with the first FDA-approved CRISPR-based therapy for sickle cell. It now targets broader indications including diabetes and oncology, with a joint venture with Vertex.

Pro: First commercial gene-editing product approved; expanding into large addressable markets.
Con: Competition from other gene editors (e.g., Editas, Beam) and long timelines to widespread adoption.
Empirical Data: Vertex partnership includes $200M milestones; trades at ~11x sales; shares up ~38% YTD.
18-Month Projection: Price target $90–$115, driven by early adoption of sickle cell therapy, pipeline news, and CRISPR 2.0 data in diabetes.

Porch Group (PRCH)

PRCH aims to be the platform that digitally links all services during a real estate transaction—from inspection to insurance. Execution has faltered, but its vision remains expansive.

Pro: Large TAM with vertical integration potential across real estate and homeowner services.
Con: Poor historical execution, high debt, and low investor trust post-SPAC.
Empirical Data: 2024 revenue ~$400M; net loss $125M; trades under 0.5x sales; shares down ~90% from 2021 peak.
18-Month Projection: Price target $5–$7 if management restores trust and core services rebound. Catalyst: profitability or cash-flow breakeven in FY26 guidance.

GSI Technology (GSIT)

GSI is transitioning from SRAM-based IP toward a novel associative processing unit (APU) targeting AI inference. Benchmarks have shown promise in database and search workloads.

Pro: APU outperforms GPUs in search-intensive inference at low power and latency.
Con: No commercial design wins yet; capital runway may not outlast product development.
Empirical Data: FY2024 revenue $8.3M; net loss ~$11M; market cap $32M. Stock down 64% over three years, up 18% YTD.
18-Month Projection: Target $4.50–$6.00 if design wins or DoD pilots convert to orders. Catalyst: any public benchmark validation from hyperscaler or sovereign.

Ollie’s Bargain Outlet (OLLI)

OLLI is a closeout retailer benefiting from excess inventory cycles. As retail inventory misalignments persist, Ollie’s is well positioned to expand.

Pro: Beneficiary of macro volatility in retail supply chains; consistent traffic growth.
Con: No e-commerce channel; growth dependent on brick-and-mortar expansion.
Empirical Data: Q1 comps +3.8%; EPS +20% YoY; forward P/E ~24. Shares up 42% YTD.
18-Month Projection: Target $100–$115 based on margin gains, store growth, and closeout tailwinds.

ETF Overview: Passive Exposure to Strategic Themes

Defiance Quantum ETF (QTUM)

QTUM offers diversified exposure to quantum computing, AI chipmakers, and enabling software firms. Its top holdings include Nvidia, Marvell, ARM, and Rigetti, giving investors early-stage exposure to a space that may take years to mature — but could drive exponential upside.
Pro: Provides liquid exposure to quantum and next-gen compute without single-stock risk.
Con: Many underlying companies are still unprofitable or in pre-commercial stages.
18-Month Projection: Target NAV range $80–$95 if AI and quantum R&D budgets expand across sovereign and enterprise verticals.

Global X Robotics & AI ETF (BOTZ)

BOTZ focuses on automation and AI hardware, with top holdings like Fanuc, Nvidia, and Intuitive Surgical. While it lacks the GPU-centric intensity of SMH, it captures the global industrial robotics trend.
Pro: Steady growth exposure to factory automation and robotic surgery.
Con: Underweights hyperscaler AI software and LLM infrastructure.
18-Month Projection: Target range $45–$52, supported by factory capex and nearshoring tailwinds.

Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ)

QQQ remains the market’s growth engine, driven by megacap tech leaders. While overlapping with several individual names in this portfolio, it offers a cushion against idiosyncratic blowups and participates in most major uptrends.
Pro: Strong 3- and 10-year CAGR; broad participation in AI, semis, and cloud.
Con: Tech-heavy with high correlation across holdings; limited downside protection.
18-Month Projection: Target $520–$580, driven by continued earnings beats and AI-driven margin expansion.

Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO)

VOO anchors this portfolio with low-cost, broad-market exposure. It provides liquidity and a performance baseline against which all other positions can be judged.
Pro: Low volatility and strong historical returns make it an ideal ballast.
Con: Diluted growth exposure; top-heavy with few asymmetries.
18-Month Projection: Target range $600–$630, reflecting historical multiple expansion and Fed cycle normalization.

Invesco NASDAQ Internet ETF (PNQI)

PNQI gives access to consumer internet names outside of pure AI or e-commerce. Its holdings span Spotify, Baidu, and Uber, giving global internet platform exposure.
Pro: Diversifies beyond U.S. big tech and includes underpriced international platforms.
Con: Internet platform growth is moderating, with regulatory drag in some regions.
18-Month Projection: Target $180–$200, tied to recovery in ad spend and subscription services post-rate cuts.

VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH)

SMH delivers focused semiconductor exposure, with top names like TSMC, Nvidia, Broadcom, and ASML. For this portfolio, it serves as both a sector hedge and a signal — a way to track how the world is pricing chip cycles.
Pro: Directly tracks the backbone of global tech with high concentration in strategic suppliers.
Con: Cyclical exposure and high volatility during capex lulls.
18-Month Projection: Target $250–$280 as foundry and HBM demand stabilize, with upside from advanced packaging and AI chip volume.

Investor Takeaway

This portfolio reflects a strategic attempt to capture the edges of emerging trends — not just by holding the consensus winners, but by identifying names one layer below: stocks with traction, optionality, or misunderstood positioning. There’s no illusion here that every bet will work. But the blend of platform leaders, infrastructure plays, and targeted moonshots creates a probability-weighted approach to outsized returns.

The key risk isn’t volatility — it’s dilution, stagnation, or execution delay. These are addressed individually in each name’s con. Still, many of these stocks are inflecting upward already. From Vertiv and Vistra to GCT and CRSP, early gains are confirming the thesis. The ETF selections wrap those views in passive scale and provide baselines for evaluating performance.

Looking ahead to early 2026, this portfolio is biased toward inflection. AI infrastructure demand is still compounding. Sovereign and enterprise compute are expanding. GLP-1 and solid-state medicine are scaling. If even 3 or 4 of the more speculative names deliver a breakout or acquisition, they’ll drive a disproportionate share of portfolio upside. That’s the power — and purpose — of asymmetric conviction.