Rocket Lab: The Musk–Trump Feud Could Steer More Government Contracts Its Way

The evolving feud between Elon Musk and Donald Trump has introduced an unexpected subplot in the high-stakes space economy. Musk’s public critiques of the former president—and Trump’s retaliatory threats to reevaluate federal subsidies to Tesla (TSLA) and SpaceX—may create political friction that makes sole-sourcing contracts to SpaceX more complicated. While few expect government agencies to abandon SpaceX entirely, the episode underscores the danger of over-concentration and raises the strategic value of having viable alternatives.

For investors, this opens a timely entry point to re-evaluate Rocket Lab (RKLB), the only credible, publicly traded U.S. launch company building toward vertical integration in launch, satellite systems, and national security payload delivery. As government agencies reconsider over-reliance on a single contractor, Rocket Lab’s growing presence in defense, communications, and payload services positions it as a strategic alternative.

Unlike SpaceX, which remains private with limited transparency and no definitive IPO path, Rocket Lab offers immediate, public market access to one of the most compelling growth stories in aerospace. In an industry increasingly shaped by geopolitical risk and federal funding cycles, this accessibility gives investors a rare chance to gain early exposure to space infrastructure at

The Revenue Trajectory: Launches, Satellites, and Defense

According to Table 1, Rocket Lab's revenue trajectory is poised to accelerate significantly between 2024 and 2029, driven by three key areas: commercial launch expansion, space systems growth, and government contracts. The government portion, in particular, stands out as the single largest potential catalyst. Rocket Lab is already a recipient of U.S. Space Development Agency (SDA) contracts and has been selected for onboarding into the U.S. Space Force’s National Security Space Launch (NSSL) Phase 3 program. These awards, worth up to $5.6 billion across multiple providers, could expand rapidly if political dynamics push agencies to diversify beyond SpaceX. The recent tension between Musk and Trump only reinforces the case for nurturing alternatives like Rocket Lab, whose neutral political profile and consistent execution position it well to absorb incremental government work.

Owning the Space Stack: Rocket Lab’s Vertical Integration Strategy

According to Table 2, Rocket Lab distinguishes itself from other private or defense-oriented space firms by vertically integrating every aspect of the space mission—launch vehicles, satellite buses, optical terminals, and soon, intelligence and surveillance payloads.

This end-to-end approach is further strengthened by its acquisition of Mynaric AG, which supplies laser communication systems vital to next-generation constellations, and its planned acquisition of Geost, which adds sensing and national security payloads.