U.S. Sanctions Backfire: China Equipment Exposure Now 34%, and Global Growth Falls Flat
What’s in This Article
This article examines the structural shift underway in China’s semiconductor industry in 2025. After years of state-driven acceleration, the sector is adjusting to slower macro conditions, saturated capacity, and rising trade barriers. I present detailed analysis and investment commentary organized across these key sections:
U.S. Sanctions Backfire and Reshape Global Equipment Flows
China’s Equipment Vendors Outperform Global Peers
Stability of China Revenue Share Among Non-Chinese Suppliers
Licensing Delays vs. Demand Weakness: What’s Behind the Q1 Drop
Domestic Substitution Accelerates Across Etch, CVD, and Lithography
The Structural Limits of Sanctions and Market Adaptation
Investment and Policy Implications for 2025–2026
Chart 1: Growth Rates – Chinese vs. Non-Chinese Semiconductor Equipment Firms (Q1 2025 YoY)
Table 1: China Revenue and Exposure by Equipment Company (Q2 2024–Q1 2025)
Table 2: Global vs. China Equipment Revenues by Company (Q4 2024 vs Q1 2025)
The semiconductor industry has become the epicenter of an intensifying technological Cold War between the U.S. and China. In December 2024, the U.S. expanded its semiconductor sanctions, aiming to further cripple China’s access to leading-edge chipmaking tools. But six months later, the results tell a different story. New data for Q1 2025 shows that global wafer fab equipment (WFE) revenue growth has stagnated at just +5.2% year-over-year. And for top non-Chinese suppliers, revenue exposure to China still accounts for 34% of sales—barely down from 35% in Q4 2024—despite ongoing sanctions and regulatory pressure, according to The Information Network report entitled “Global Semiconductor Equipment: Markets, Market Shares and Market Forecasts.”
Rather than isolate China, these sanctions have bifurcated the industry and accelerated the rise of domestic Chinese equipment vendors. The end result: U.S. and allied firms are losing share in the world’s most important semiconductor market, while global revenue growth weakens due to the inability to freely serve Chinese customers, according to The Information Network report entitled “Mainland China’s Semiconductor and Equipment Markets: Analysis and Manufacturing Trends.”